What to Watch: China’s Evolving Luxury Market Reset
Denni Hu and Tianwei Zhang
Mon, January 5, 2026 at 12:01 AM EST
5 min read
A quickly maturing Chinese luxury market means that during this year and beyond, brands will continue to refine strategies and compete more intensely for market share rather than rely on easy growth.
Despite tariff shocks, China’s economy was “very resilient in 2025,” according to Natixis. Thanks to fiscal support and an aggressive export strategy, the world’s second-largest economy is heading toward a “moderate deceleration path” in 2026, according to the investment bank.
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Domestically, with falling home prices — a December Reuters survey forecast a 3.7 percent decline in 2026 before stabilizing in 2027 — persistent deflationary pressures, and stagnant wage growth, China’s consumption market faces a tough year ahead.
As consumers shift spending to experiential retail, tourism and wellness — all of which are emerging consumption sectors promoted by Chinese authorities — it is apparent that the country’s luxury market is entering a new era. In a recent report, UBS noted that China will become a “core driver” of future growth after a period of headwinds.
“Brands will have to fight to retain consumers through actions such as storytelling and stronger offerings, suggesting the phase of easy gains is now likely behind us,” noted the report.
“After being the main growth driver of the luxury space for the past few decades, our primary research suggests that China is now becoming a market share game,” Barclays wrote.
Be it a more cautious middle class, the patriotic new rich, or traditional VIP shoppers, a redistribution of spend is happening across luxury consumer categories.
“Luxury is not in decline; it is undergoing a structural evolution. 2026 will favor brands that prioritize cultural intelligence, concentrate on serving their core consumers, and optimize their end-to-end value chains to systematically unlock performance across markets,” explained Jacques Roizen, managing director of consulting at the Shanghai-based Digital Luxury Group.
“Brand desirability and long-term aspiration for luxury remain high, yet the more meaningful shift is behavioral. There’s a greater emphasis on value retention and rationalized purchasing, which means faster growth in experiences, wellness, jewelry and outdoor-adjacent categories,” said Roizen.
The meteoric rise of local heroes, including the grimacing plush toy Labubu, gold jewelry label Laopu Gold, and affordable luxury handbag brand Songmont, will continue to drive conversation around what luxury means for local shoppers in 2026.
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“Spending is becoming more selective, favoring entry-price luxury, experiential propositions, and high-frequency touch points,” Roizen added.
For Robert Xiao, a 34-year-old marketing executive based in Shanghai and Wuhan, that means becoming more invested in a brand he truly identifies with.
“I’m still a big Stone Island fan,” said Xiao. “The shoulder patch is where the emotional value is at — a subtle flex, a badge of approval when you wear the three-line arm patch,” he added, referring to a signifier for student leaders in Chinese public middle schools.
As Chinese shoppers shift to “emotional spending,” brands are turning to one-of-a-kind experiences as the primary draw — not just the number of luxury stores.
Last summer, during a quiet promotional period for luxury goods, Louis Vuitton opened a futuristic, boat-shaped retail landmark at Shanghai’s HKRI Taikoo Hui shopping mall, which increased mall traffic by 50 percent.
Marc-Antoine Jamet, general secretary of LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, told WWD during the latest China International Import Expo, or CIIE, that the group will continue to create exceptional places and experiences in China, such as The Louis in Shanghai, and offer meaningful products crafted with passion and responsibility.
Last December, after a two-year renovation, brands including Dior, Louis Vuitton, Tiffany & Co., Loro Piana and Alaïa unveiled stores with statement architecture in a reimagined retail quarter known as the Northern District at Taikoo Li Beijing, drawing an eager crowd and resetting the luxury ecosystem in the capital city.
Delphine Arnault, chairman and chief executive officer of Christian Dior Couture, called the House of Dior Beijing “a realm of unique experiences, where all forms of art de vivre come together beautifully,” while Alaïa CEO Myriam Serrano told WWD that the brand’s first China flagship in Beijing will “propose the right experience for our clients.”
Next year, major openings and top-performing location expansions in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Wuhan, Guangzhou and Shenzhen will continue to generate revenue and buzz for brands and provide excitement for local big spenders.
For example, with Lane Crawford closing its Chengdu location at the top luxury mall IFS by the end of February, some 82,000 square feet of retail space will be freed up to accommodate brand expansions.
In Wuhan, the majority of the 44 properties that have been repurposed for brand takeovers on SKP’s K Avenue will be unveiled, leading up to the official opening of the shopping complex in October.
Last month, Louis Vuitton opened a three-story store spanning 9,500 square feet at SKP Wuhan. It is one of the first Vuitton locations in China with dedicated fragrance and makeup sections. In April, Miu Miu also unveiled its first flagship in central China, which spans around 5,200 square feet and three stories.
According to Erwan Rambourg, global head of luxury and consumer at HSBC, despite the Chinese market not expected to see strong growth before 2027, the winners should still grow in 2026, while others find their footing.
Rambourg name-checked Coach, Ralph Lauren, Longchamp, Hermès, Loro Piana, Cartier and Brunello Cucinelli as outperformers, and bestowed the “winner” titles on Miu Miu and Louis Vuitton for owning the creative and cultural relevance games, respectively.
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