Bombshell Census projections show Republicans could win White House without Rust Belt ‘Blue Wall’

Elections

Bombshell Census projections show Republicans could win White House without Rust Belt ‘Blue Wall’

Political strategists say Democratic Party faces 'existential crisis' in winning presidency as electoral math changes

Paul Steinhauser Fox News

Published

January 28, 2026 1:24pm EST

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New projections of the 2030 U.S. Census indicating a major shift of electoral votes from traditionally blue states to red states could be a "game changer" in the quadrennial battle between Democrats and Republicans for the presidency.

Left-leaning California, New York, and Illinois could lose a total of eight congressional seats due to sweeping population shifts this decade, with right-tilting Texas and Florida gaining eight seats, according to an analysis by the non-partisan Redistrict Network.

The findings, which are based on 2025 Census Bureau population estimates and data from previous years, were compiled by Carnegie Mellon University redistricting expert Dr. Jonathan Cervas and released on Tuesday.

Another projection, from the Republican-aligned American Redistricting Project, indicates Texas gaining four seats and Florida gaining two.

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A new projection of the 2030 U.S. Census indicating a major shift of electoral votes from traditionally blue states to red states could spell trouble for Democrats starting in the 2032 presidential election. (iStock)

The projections spell trouble for Democrats when it comes to the battle for the House majority next decade, after reapportionment based on the 2030 Census. But it would also be a major setback for them starting in the 2032 presidential election, because states' electoral votes are based in part on the number of their congressional seats.

"I think the Democrats are in a bit of an existential crisis when it comes to winning the White House," longtime Republican strategist David Kochel told Fox News Digital.

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Kochel, a veteran of numerous GOP presidential campaigns, said, "I think it’s right that there’s going to be an 8-10 electoral vote shift" from blue to red states.

"I would not want to be where the Democrats are," he emphasized. "The numbers don’t lie and the Democrats’ [electoral college] hill is getting steeper and steeper to climb."

Veteran Democratic pollster Chris Anderson agreed that if the Census projections become electoral reality, "it would be a major barrier for Democrats" in winning the White House.

Anderson, the longtime Democratic partner on the Fox News Poll, called it a potential "game changer."

Democrats reliably won the three working-class states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, known as the "blue wall" states, in presidential elections for nearly a quarter-century before President Donald Trump narrowly carried them in capturing the White House in 2016.

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Former President Joe Biden won all three states back in 2020 as he defeated Trump's bid for re-election.

But Trump swept the blue wall and the other four general election battlegrounds as he won back the White House in 2024.

President Donald Trump celebrates his White House re-election at the Palm Beach Convention Center on Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Going forward next decade, if the Census projections take hold, winning the blue wall states won't put Democrats over the top in order to capture the White House.

"Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania won’t be enough. You going to have to put together a much broader coalition," Kochel said as he pointed to the Democrats. "They are going to have to readjust how they build their coalition so that they include more working-class voters, non-college voters. These are the voters that they lost, and they’re going to have to get them back."

And Kochel argued, "if you can’t put Florida in play, this thing is going to get away [from Democrats] and be much harder for them to be competitive nationally."

Anderson noted that in the race for the White House, "it’s all about the electoral math and when that changes, your equations change."

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But Democrats say they're up to the task.

Pointing to the Census project, Democratic strategist Andrew Mamo told Fox News Digital, "it shows that our number one goal needs to be getting more competitive and winning in places where we’re not doing that right now."

"We cannot just sit on the same places we’ve counted on. We have to expand to places where the Democratic brand can be better," Mamo, a presidential campaign veteran, emphasized.

Paul Steinhauser is a politics reporter based in the swing state of New Hampshire. He covers the campaign trail from coast to coast."

Bombshell Census projections show Republicans could win White House without Rust Belt ‘Blue Wall’