A Look At Dollar General (DG) Valuation As Analyst Upgrades And Expansion Plans Spur Fresh Interest

Simply Wall St.

A Look At Dollar General (DG) Valuation As Analyst Upgrades And Expansion Plans Spur Fresh Interest

Simply Wall St

Mon, January 19, 2026 at 2:09 PM EST

3 min read

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Dollar General (DG) is back in focus after a cluster of upbeat analyst updates and fresh optimism around its expansion plans, including a larger Nashville headquarters and hundreds of new and remodeled stores.

See our latest analysis for Dollar General.

The recent headquarters expansion and store roll out plans come as the share price has climbed to around $148.74, with a 90 day share price return of about 41% and a 1 year total shareholder return above 120%, signalling strong momentum despite weaker multi year total shareholder returns.

If Dollar General’s move has your attention, it could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With the share price near $148.74 after a sharp 90-day and 1-year run, yet an indicated intrinsic value suggesting a 14% discount, you have to ask: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 21.2% Overvalued

With Dollar General last closing at $148.74 versus a narrative fair value of $122.68, the current price sits well above that implied estimate, which is built on detailed forecasts for revenue, margins and valuation multiples.

In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $46.9 billion, earnings will come to $1.7 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 19.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.0%.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady mid single digit revenue growth, firmer margins and a richer future P/E all fit together? The full narrative lays out the earnings path that needs to materialise for this valuation to hold.

Result: Fair Value of $122.68 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, steady earnings assumptions could be knocked off course if store expansion leads to over saturation, or if rising labor costs keep eating into margins.

Find out about the key risks to this Dollar General narrative.

Another View: DCF Paints A Very Different Picture

While the popular narrative framework suggests Dollar General is about 21.2% overvalued, the SWS DCF model points the other way, with a fair value estimate of $172.43 versus the current $148.74. That 13.7% gap frames the recent run up less as froth and more as potential upside left on the table. Which story do you think fits the business better?

Story Continues

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

DG Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026
DG Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Dollar General for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 866 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Dollar General Narrative

If you are not fully on board with these assumptions or prefer to weigh the numbers yourself, you can shape a custom view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Dollar General research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Dollar General has you thinking more broadly about where to put fresh capital to work, do not stop here. Your next standout idea could be just a filter away.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include DG.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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